If you flip a coin, there’s a 50% chance that you will see your friend, so your expected “loss” (having to pay back the $100) is $50.īut suppose you learn that your friend prefers the coffee at Casino Alpha, so has slightly altered their routine. What is your best (literally GTO) strategy for avoiding them? You should also flip a coin to choose between the two casinos – this will maximize your chances of missing your friend. You know that your friend also plays poker at those two casinos, and chooses them by flipping a coin, so they have a 50% probability of being at each casino. Each day you go to play poker, at either Casino Alpha or Casino Beta.
Suppose you owe a poker buddy $100, and would like to avoid them for a little while so you don’t have to pay them back yet. Here’s a simple explanation of what Nate means, courtesy of Andrew Brokos, and his excellent book, Play Optimal Poker.
I say “former,” because Nate has left the poker world to pursue other interests. I wish I could take credit for that line, but I learned it from former poker theorist Nate Meyvis.
